Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Comparing KTd vs. KRd Induction Therapy and Investigating a K-mono Maintenance Strategy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationheartcardiactransplantuncontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: mgdays prior14 daysresponseinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 52030 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 237858 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 16 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Weekly Carfilzomib in Combination With Dexamethasone for Progressive Multiple Myeloma NCT01677858 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study With Carfilzomib and Dexamethasone Versus Bortezomib and Dexamethasone for Relapsed Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT01568866 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study of Carfilzomib Plus Dexamethasone in Adults With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma at US Community Oncology Centers NCT03512353 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Carfilzomib vs Best Supportive Care in Subjects With Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01302392 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Once-weekly Versus Twice-weekly Carfilzomib in Combination With Dexamethasone in Adults With Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02412878 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.