A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of BMS-986177 in Participants With End-stage Renal Dysfunction on Chronic Stable Hemodialysis Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsstagehemodialysisother protocolsafety tolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluatepharmacokineticsopen labelkg
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 96 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 539 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Safety of Single Doses of BMS-986177 in Patients With End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Treated With Hemodialysis NCT03000673 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate BMS-986278 in Participants With Normal Renal Function, Severe Renal Impairment, or End-Stage Renal Disease on Intermittent Hemodialysis NCT06723535 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety of Experimental Medication BMS986165 in Participants With Normal Kidney Function and Participants With Mild to End-Stage Kidney Disease. NCT03890770 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics (Drug Levels and Metabolism), Safety, and Tolerability of BMS-986259 in Participants With Various Levels of Kidney Function NCT04237831 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Evaluate Pharmacokinetics and Safety of BMS-986177 in Participants With Normal Renal Function and With Moderate or Severe Renal Impairment NCT03196206 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.