A Phase II Trial If Nivolumab, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in High Risk Smoldering Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectcancerpriorinstitutionalrisk
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomaparticipantsmultiplelenalidomidelight
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 64 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 244 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 52562 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 194773 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Combination of Ixazomib and Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Smoldering Multiple Myeloma NCT02916771 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Study of Bortezomib,Lenalidomide,Dexamethasone & Elotuzumab in Newly Diagnosed MM NCT02375555 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Efficacy and Safety of Lenalidomide, Subcutaneous Bortezomib and Dexamethasone Therapy for Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT02441686 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine Efficacy and Safety of Lenalidomide Plus Low-dose Dexamethasone Versus Melphalan, Prednisone, Thalidomide in Patients With Previously Untreated Multiple Myeloma NCT00689936 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Study of Initial Treatment With Elotuzumab, Carfilzomib, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Multiple Myeloma NCT02969837 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.