Efficacy and Safety Study of Guselkumab in the Treatment of Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque-Type Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseaseplaceborandomizationseverepurpose
  Phrases that lowered it: lymphomapsoriasispharmacokineticshas historysubjects
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 273 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Comparative Efficacy of CNTO 1959 (Guselkumab) and Secukinumab for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT03090100 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety of CNTO 1959 (Guselkumab) in Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque-type Psoriasis NCT02325219 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Study of Guselkumab in the Treatment of Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque-Type Psoriasis With Randomized Withdrawal and Retreatment NCT02207244 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study of Guselkumab in Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque-type Psoriasis and an Inadequate Response to Ustekinumab NCT02203032 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study of Guselkumab in the Treatment of Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque-Type Psoriasis NCT02207231 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.