Study of Irinotecan and AZD1775, a Selective Wee 1 Inhibitor, in RAS or BRAF Mutated, Second-line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartbowelventricularfailureqt
  Phrases that lowered it: metastaticmalefemalecombinationline
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 83 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 179 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Irinotecan and Cetuximab With or Without Bevacizumab in Treating Patients With RAS Wild-Type Locally Advanced or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT02292758 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Onvansertib in Combination With FOLFIRI and Bevacizumab for Second Line Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients With a KRAS Mutation NCT03829410 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• FOLFIRI and Panitumumab in Treating Patients With RAS and BRAF Wild-Type Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02508077 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• MEK Inhibitor MEK162 in Combination With Leucovorin Calcium, Fluorouracil, and Oxaliplatin in Treating Patients With Advanced Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02041481 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Cabozantinib and Panitumumab to Treat KRAS Wild-Type Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02008383 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.