A Study of Atezolizumab Plus Cobimetinib and Vemurafenib Versus Placebo Plus Cobimetinib and Vemurafenib in Previously Untreated BRAFv600 Mutation-Positive Patients With Metastatic or Unresectable Locally Advanced Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stemdiseasecancermelanomametastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantvaccineevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 141 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 932 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cobimetinib (Targeted Therapy) Plus Atezolizumab (Immunotherapy) in Participants With Advanced Melanoma Whose Cancer Has Worsened During or After Treatment With Previous Immunotherapy and Atezolizumab Monotherapy in Participants With Previously Untreated Advanced Melanoma NCT03178851 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study of Cobimetinib Plus Atezolizumab Versus Pembrolizumab in Participants With Previously Untreated Advanced BRAFv600 Wild-Type Melanoma NCT03273153 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of Vemurafenib in Combination With Cobimetinib (Continuous and Intermittent) in BRAFV600-mutation Positive Patients With Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma NCT02583516 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib in Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma Patients NCT03224208 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1b Study of Atezolizumab in Combination With Vemurafenib or Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib in Participants With BRAFV600-Mutation Positive Metastatic Melanoma NCT01656642 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.