Estrogen Receptor Antagonist in Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-12-05, after 2017-04-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapycellscancerventricularlung
Phrases that lowered it: drugadministrationvisitstudy willalcohol -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 127 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 420 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 420 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 127 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5211 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1791 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 66.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fulvestrant
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Anastrozole in Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT01545336 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Tamoxifen Therapy to Treat Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT03528902 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Pulmonary Hypertension and Anastrozole Trial NCT03229499 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Dose-response Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Beraprost Sodium Modified Release (BPS-MR) in Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) NCT00989963 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Frespaciguat (MK-5475) in Participants With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (INSIGNIA-PAH: Phase 2/3 Study of an Inhaled sGC Stimulator in PAH) (MK-5475-007) NCT04732221 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.