Prospective ARNI vs ACE Inhibitor Trial to DetermIne Superiority in Reducing Heart Failure Events After MI

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationpriorintravenousacuteanemia
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateevaluate theand safetyefficacy andsafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 186 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 950 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 28729 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• This Study Will Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Enalapril on Morbidity and Mortality of Patients With Chronic Heart Failure NCT01035255 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Ranolazine for Incomplete Vessel Revascularization Post-Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) NCT01442038 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Dose-Defining Study of CXL-1020 in Patients With Systolic Heart Failure NCT01096043 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 in Japanese Patients With Chronic Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02468232 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of CDR132L in Patients With Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction After Myocardial Infarction NCT05350969 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.