Assessment of the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacodynamics After Administration of One Dose of AZD8601 to Male Patients With Type II Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellheartmacularplacebo controlledtime of
  Phrases that lowered it: daypsoriasissingleintakealcohol
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1418 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluate HM-002-1005 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT06498284 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Single Ascending Dose Study of MK-1092 in Healthy Participants and in Participants With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (MK-1092-001) NCT03170544 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of DA-1241 in Healthy Male Subjects and Subjects With T2DM NCT03646721 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study of Single and Multiple Doses of Oral Insulin or Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02954601 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Safety, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of Multiple Oral Bedtime Doses of ORMD-0801 in Adult Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) NCT01889667 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.