Effect of MD1003 in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (SPI2)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiple sclerosismonths priorprior topatients withplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: alcoholcontaininghypersensitivity orformabuse
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 45.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9951 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability and Activity Study of Ibudilast in Subjects With Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01982942 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• MS-SMART: Multiple Sclerosis-Secondary Progressive Multi-Arm Randomisation Trial NCT01910259 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• BG00012 and Delay of Disability Progression in Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT02430532 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study of the Efficacy of Natalizumab on Reducing Disability Progression in Participants With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01416181 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Exploratory Study to Assess the Effect of Fampridine (BIIB041) on Walking Ability and Balance in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis. NCT01597297 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.