High Dose Carfilzomib for Newly Diagnosed Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-10-08, after 2016-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: concurrentcellsivbowelunstable
Phrases that lowered it: participantsmyelomaplasmamultiplelesion -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 107 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 438 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 192242 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 438 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 107 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 192242 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 49019 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carfilzomib, dexamethasone, lenalidomide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Carfilzomib, Lenalidomide, and Dexamethasone in New Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT01402284 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Phase 1b Multicenter Study of Carfilzomib With Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Relapsed Multiple Myeloma NCT00603447 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Weekly 70 mg/m2 Carfilzomib for Multiple Myeloma Patients Refractory to 27 mg/m2 Carfilzomib NCT02294357 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
- Carfilzomib, Clarithromycin (Biaxin®), Lenalidomide (Revlimid®), and Dexamethasone (Decadron®) [Car-BiRD] Therapy for Subjects With Multiple Myeloma NCT01559935 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Phase I/II Study of Carfilzomib, Pomalidomide and Dexamethasone in Relapsed And/Or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients (CPD) NCT02185820 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.