A Phase II, Study to Determine the Preliminary Efficacy of Novel Combinations of Treatment in Patients With Platinum Refractory Extensive-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecancerchemotherapycellbowel
  Phrases that lowered it: multidiseasesinhibitorsefficacy90
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1412 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AZD1775 Plus Carboplatin-Paclitaxel in Squamous Cell Lung Cancer NCT02513563 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• AZD1775 Combined With Olaparib in Patients With Refractory Solid Tumors NCT02511795 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating The Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, And Efficacy Of Venetoclax In Combination With Atezolizumab, Carboplatin, And Etoposide In Participants With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer (ES-SCLC). NCT04422210 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• Olaparib Monotherapy in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With HR Pathway Gene Mutations Not Limited to BRCA 1/2 Mutations, ATM Deficiency or MRE11A Mutations NCT03009682 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Patients With ES-SCLC and ECOG PS=2 Receiving Atezolizumab-Carboplatin-Etoposide NCT04221529 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.