A Randomised Proof-of-Principle Trial Investigating Pharmacodynamics, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of NNC0143-0406 in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: adequateeffectiveagree tobarrieris pregnant
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsand safetybodymalesafety of
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 61 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 596 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Subcutaneous NNC0143-0406 A 0.6 mmol/L in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes NCT02612844 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Dose Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of NNC0123-0000-0338 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01796366 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Two Part Trial Investigating NN1952 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes NCT01028404 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Subcutaneously Administered NNC0148-0287 (Insulin 287) in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02148861 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (the Exposure of the Trial Drug in the Body) and Pharmacodynamics (the Effect of the Investigated Drug on the Body) of Insulin 287 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02964104 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.