Mapping the Endocrine Determinants of Ovarian Stimulation to Optimize Outcomes in Fresh Embryo Transfer Cycles
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (60 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-01-31, after 2016-08-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebolocalassociatedstimulationprior to
Phrases that lowered it: patientsaccordingcyclesendocrinewritten consent -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 11644 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3168 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- letrozole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of Addition of Aromatase Inhibitor to Ovarian Stimulation Therapy in IVF Treatment NCT02946684 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- RIOTC: Reducing the Impact of Ovarian Stimulation. Novel Approaches to Luteal Support in IVF-Study 2 NCT04524026 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Dual Ovarian Stimulation in the Same IVF/ICSI Cycles for Treatment of Poor Ovarian Responders NCT02732808 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Recombinant LH Prior to Ovarian Stimulation in Poor Ovarian Responders (PRE-LH) NCT03741699 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- PERgoveriS In Stratified Treatment for Assisted Reproductive Technique NCT01297465 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.