Safety and Immunogenicity of Pfs25M-EPA/AS01 and Pfs230D1M-EPA/AS01 Vaccines, Transmission Blocking Vaccines Against Plasmodium Falciparum, at Full and Fractional Dosing in Adults in Mali

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosisor equalequal tocardiacmonths
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationparticipantsparticipantreceipt
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 111 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1098 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 52 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of the Safety and Immunogenicity of Pfs230D1M-EPA/Alhydrogel and Pfs25M-EPA/Alhydrogel , a Transmission Blocking Vaccine Against Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria, in Adults in the U.S. and Mali NCT02334462 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Pfs230D1M-EPA/AS01 Vaccine, a Transmission Blocking Vaccine Against Plasmodium Falciparum, in an Age De-Escalation Trial of Children and a Family Compound Trial in Mali NCT03917654 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Safety, Immunogenicity, and Protective Efficacy of Two Regimens of Radiation Attenuated Plasmodium Falciparum NF54 Sporozoites (PfSPZ Vaccine) During Natural Transmission Season in Healthy African Adults in Mali NCT03510481 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Study of the Transmission-Blocking Vaccine Pfs230D1-EPA/Matrix-M Against Malaria in Adults in Mali NCT05135273 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Safety, Immunogenicity, and Protective Efficacy of Radiation Attenuated Plasmodium Falciparum NF54 Sporozoites in Healthy African Adults in Mali NCT02627456 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.