Low-dose AZA, Pioglitazone, ATRA Versus Standard-dose AZA in Patients >=60 Years With Refractory AML
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-03-25, after 2017-04-10 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: leukemiaamlmyeloidcancersubject
Phrases that lowered it: dosesafetydays beforemgdrug -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 60 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 33.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 45592 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5573 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- azacitidine, pioglitazone, tretinoin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Azacitidine in Combination With Pembrolizumab in R/R AML Patients and in Newly Diagnosed Older Patients NCT02845297 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Pevonedistat and Azacitidine as Maintenance Therapy After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation for Non-Remission AML NCT03709576 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- An Efficacy and Safety Study of Pevonedistat Plus Azacitidine Versus Single-Agent Azacitidine in Participants With Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (HR MDS), Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia (CMML) and Low-Blast Acute Myelogenous Leukemia (AML) NCT02610777 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Treatment of MDS/AML Patients With an Impending Hematological Relapse With AZA or ATA and Pevonedistat NCT04712942 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Pevonedistat, Azacitidine (or Decitabine), and Venetoclax for the Treatment of Patients With Acute Myelogenous Leukemia NCT04172844 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.