A Study to Assess the Relative Oral Bioavailability of a Single Dose of JNJ-53718678 Administered as Oral Concept Formulation Compared to the Current Oral Solution and to Assess the Effect of Food on the Pharmacokinetics of Oral Concept Formulation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 2% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diabetesmellitusdiseasesyndromeuln
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantsbioavailabilityparticipantthe effect
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 122 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 247 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Relative Oral Bioavailability of JNJ-63623872 Administered as Oral Concept Formulations Compared to the Current Tablet Formulation NCT02659735 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Bioavailability, Safety and Tolerability of a Solid Dosage Formulation Relative to a Suspension of JNJ-54175446 in Healthy Male and Female Participants NCT02930694 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Relative Bioavailability of Orally Administered JNJ-42756493 Tablet Versus JNJ-42756493 Capsule in Healthy Participants NCT02231489 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Relative Bioavailability of JNJ64041575 Administered as 2 Different New Concept Formulations (Oral Suspension and Tablet) Compared to Their Respective Current Formulations, and to Assess the Effect of Food on the Pharmacokinetics of the 2 New Concept Formulations NCT03010059 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetic Study of JNJ-42756493 in Healthy Participants NCT02218073 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.