Evaluation of 3-V Bioscience-2640 to Reduce de Novo Lipogenesis in Subjects With Characteristics of Metabolic Syndrome
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (106 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-01-30, after 2017-02-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 30.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: kidneygreater thanliversubjects withheart
Phrases that lowered it: insulinaciddiabetesmetaboliccardiovascular -
Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 35 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 78 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 30.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 24 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver With Different Doses of Vitamin E NCT01792115 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Effect of Elafibranor on Hepatic Lipid Composition in Subjects With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver (NAFL) NCT03953456 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- Phase 2 Study of Obeticholic Acid for Lipodystrophy Patients NCT02430077 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Study to Assess the Safety of Oral Insulin in Patients With Nonalcolholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) NCT02653300 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate DD01 in Overweight/Obese Subjects With MASLD/MASH NCT06410924 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.