Mycophenolate Mofetil Versus Azathioprine for Maintenance Therapy of Lupus Nephritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-01-25, after 2015-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapytransplantreceivingrandomizationcell
Phrases that lowered it: asthmaoralsafetyefficacyformulation -
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 99269 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 16072 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- azathioprine, mycophenolate mofetil, mycophenolic acid, prednisolone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Tacrolimus Versus Mycophenolate in Lupus Nephritis NCT02630628 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Cyclophosphamide Versus Mycophenolate Mofetil in Lupus Nephritis NCT03200002 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Concentration-controlled Therapy of Mycophenolate Mofetil (MMF) in Proliferative Lupus Nephritis NCT01042457 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Tacrolimus Capsules and Cyclophosphamide Injection in Treatment of Lupus Nephritis NCT02457221 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- The Efficacy of Enteric-coated Mycophenolate Sodium (EC-MPS) (Myfortic) in The Treatment of Relapse or Resistant Proliferative Lupus Nephritis NCT01015456 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.