Study To Compare Avelumab In Combination With Standard of Care Chemoradiotherapy (SoC CRT) Versus SoC CRT for Definitive Treatment In Patients With Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma Of The Head And Neck (JAVELIN HEAD AND NECK 100)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellstagerandomizationtumorcoronary
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatefemalecombinationdrugsmale
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1624 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Bioimmunoradiotherapy (Cetuximab/RT/Avelumab) NCT02938273 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A Study of Atezolizumab (Anti-PD-L1 Antibody) as Adjuvant Therapy After Definitive Local Therapy in Patients With High-Risk Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT03452137 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• Avelumab With Chemoradiation for Stage II/III Resectable Esophageal and Gastroesophageal Cancer NCT03490292 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Avelumab for Recurrent/Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Cancer NCT02875613 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Induction Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT01412229 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.