A Study of Ruxolitinib in Combination With Corticosteroids for the Treatment of Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (REACH-1)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: gvhdheartenrollmentstageorgan
  Phrases that lowered it: per daythe efficacysubjects whokgdrug
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 40% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 41816 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 198741 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Activity, Safety and Pharmacokinetics in Pediatric Subjects With Moderate and Severe Chronic Graft vs. Host Disease After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant NCT03774082 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Low Dose Ruxolitinib in Combination With Methylprednisolone NCT04397367 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Study of Ruxolitinib for Acute and Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease NCT05121142 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Ruxolitinib Versus Best Available Therapy in Patients With Corticosteroid-refractory Acute Graft vs. Host Disease After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation NCT02913261 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare T-Guard vs Ruxolitinib for Treatment of Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft-vs-Host Disease (BMT CTN 2002) NCT04934670 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.