Cytisine Versus Varenicline for Smoking Cessation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-10-10, after 2017-09-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: treatedstrokeseveremoderatemmhg
Phrases that lowered it: smokingnicotineevaluate theto evaluatevarenicline -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 42.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 69429 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2612 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 42.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cytisine, varenicline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Cytisine and E-cigarettes With Supportive Text-messaging for Smoking Cessation (Cess@Tion) NCT05311085 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Cytisine Pharmacokinetics and Dose Response (C-DRAKS 3 and C-DRAKS 4) NCT02585024 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
- Smoking Relapse Prevention Among COPD Ex-smokers NCT02888444 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
- Facilitating Smoking Cessation With Reduced Nicotine Cigarettes NCT02796391 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Adaptive Use of Nicotine Substitution to Maintain Smoking Reduction/Abstinence in Nicotine Responders NCT06554873 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.