A Dose Response Study of E6011 in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis Inadequately Responding to Methotrexate

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomaantibodycellstudy periodeffective
  Phrases that lowered it: participantarthritisrheumatoidraparticipants
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2 Study of E6011 in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis Inadequately Responding to Biologics NCT02960490 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Placebo-controlled Phase II Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of F8IL10 (Dekavil) in Patients With Active RA Receiving MTX NCT02270632 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• First in Human Study of a Monoclonal Antibody (SOL-116) Targeting BSSL (Bile Salt-Stimulated Lipase), Single and Multiple Dose Parts NCT05576012 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Randomized, Double-blind, Vehicle Controlled, Repeat Dose Comparative Study in RA Patients Managed With DMARDs NCT04286789 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Dose Escalation Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP2409 Following a Single Intravenous Dose in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate NCT02171143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.