Study of Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 (Canakinumab) in Pediatric and Young Adult Patients With Sickle Cell Anemia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-04-27, after 2017-04-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paincelltolerabilitysickleanemia
Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyscreeningvisitdailynormal -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 49.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 985 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 182 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 20 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 8 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 8 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 20 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 985 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 182 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2563 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1098 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 49.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- canakinumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety, Efficacy, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of ALXN1820 in Adult Participants With Sickle Cell Disease NCT05565092 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
- Omega-3 Fatty Acids in Sickle Cell Disease NCT02947100 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- AB1 in Adult Patients with Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) NCT05261711 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of Different Dose Regimens of Aes-103 Given for 28 Days to Subjects With Stable Sickle Cell Disease NCT01987908 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of V114 in Children With Sickle Cell Disease (V114-023/PNEU-SICKLE) NCT03731182 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.