Pembrolizumab vs Topotecan in Patients With Small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-08-20, after 2017-05-20 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientpatientscellcancersmall
Phrases that lowered it: asthmainfluenzaparticipantslaboratoryrelapsed -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 8926 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8926 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3396 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 30.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pembrolizumab, topotecan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pembrolizumab and Paclitaxel in Refractory Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02551432 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study of Pembrolizumab After Curative Intent Treatment for Oligometastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02316002 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Genetic Predictors of Benefit to Pembrolizumab NCT02710396 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Switch Maintenance Pembrolizumab in Patients With NSCLC After First Line Platinum Doublet Chemotherapy NCT02705820 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab in Patients With Metastatic Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02955758 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.