A Study of Melphalan Flufenamide (Melflufen) Plus Dexamethasone in Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-16, after 2016-12-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priortherapybreastradiationthe purpose
Phrases that lowered it: multiplemaleevaluatesingleopen label -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 85952 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 20270 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dexamethasone, melphalan flufenamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy of Melflufen and Dexamethasone in Relapsed and/or Relapsed-Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT01897714 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- Study of Melflufen (Melphalan Flufenamide) in Combination With Daratumumab in Relapsed-Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT04649060 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Modakafusp Alfa in Adult Participants With Multiple Myeloma NCT05556616 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Melphalan Flufenamide (Melflufen)-Dex or Pomalidomide-dex for RRMM Patients Refractory to Lenalidomide NCT03151811 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
- Filanesib (ARRY-520) in Combination With Pomalidomide and Dexamethasone for Relapsed/Refractory (R/R) Multiple Myeloma (MM) Patients NCT02384083 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.