Plus Epicatechin Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy in Non-ambulatory Adolescents

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (106 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mricardiacenrollmentdetermineejection
  Phrases that lowered it: rangeclinicaldailysafetystudy will
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy Study of AVI-4658 to Induce Dystrophin Expression in Selected Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Patients NCT01396239 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Oral Ifetroban in Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT03340675 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of GSK2402968 in Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT01254019 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Safety, Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of PF-06252616 in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT02310763 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• A Study of ATL1102 or Placebo in Participants With Non-ambulatory Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT05938023 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.