Effect of SNF472 on Progression of Cardiovascular Calcification in End-Stage-Renal-Disease (ESRD) Patients on Hemodialysis (HD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-09-30, after 2016-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: dialysiskidneyhemodialysisassessstage
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofrandomisationscreeningperiod -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, metabolic, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- ALdosterone Antagonist Chronic HEModialysis Interventional Survival Trial NCT01848639 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Angiotensin-Neprilysin Inhibition in Hemodialysis Initiation NCT05498181 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of SBR759 in Lowering Serum Phosphate Levels in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients on Hemodialysis NCT00704483 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Study With SNF472 in Calciphylaxis Patients NCT02790073 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Phase 3 Study of SNF472 for Calciphylaxis NCT04195906 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.