A Study of the Anti-PD1 Antibody PDR001, in Combination With Dabrafenib and Trametinib in Advanced Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticplacebomelanomadouble blindunresectable
  Phrases that lowered it: accordingother protocolmay applydefined inclusionevaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 185 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 978 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 15 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Comparing Trametinib and Dabrafenib Combination Therapy to Dabrafenib Monotherapy in Subjects With BRAF-mutant Melanoma NCT01584648 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of Novel Spartalizumab Combinations in Patients With Previously Treated Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma NCT03484923 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Dabrafenib With Trametinib in the Adjuvant Treatment of High-risk BRAF V600 Mutation-positive Melanoma (COMBI-AD). NCT01682083 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing 3 Study Medicines (Encorafenib, Binimetinib, Pembrolizumab) to 2 Study Medicines (Ipilimumab and Nivolumab) in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT05926960 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Comparison of AZD6244 in Combination With Dacarbazine Versus (vs) Dacarbazine Alone in BRAF Mutation Positive Melanoma Patients NCT00936221 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.