Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation With Post-transplantation Cyclophosphamide in MDS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donortransplantationcellhlaallogeneic
  Phrases that lowered it: amlleukemiamdsevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 54961 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 5-Azacytidine Prior to Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant in High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT00721214 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• G-CSF+Decitabine+BUCY vs BUCY Conditioning Regimen for RAEB-1, REAB-2 and AML Secondary to MDS Undergoing Allo-HSCT NCT02744742 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Microtransplantation With Decitabine and Cytarabine Improves Patient Outcomes in Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT01674985 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Post Transplant High-Dose Cy as GvHD Prophylaxis in 1 HLA Mismatched Unrelated HSCT for Myeloid Malignancies NCT03270748 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• VIDAZA-DLI Pre-emptive Azacitidine and Donor Lymphocyte Infusions Following Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for High Risk Acute Myeloid Leukemia and Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT01541280 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.