Prognostic Analysis of Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy With/Without Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced NPC Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomacellsquamousconcurrenthigh risk
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluateefficacyclinicaldiabetesdrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 66150 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Concurrent Cisplatin Chemoradiation With or Without Capecitabine as Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Local Advanced High Risk Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Randomized Control Clinical Trial NCT02143388 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Induction Cisplatin and Capecitabine Followed by Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma NCT03427359 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Combination of Docetaxel, Cisplatin, and Capecitabine (DCX) in the Treatment of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma NCT02360501 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Concurrent Chemotherapy for the Intermediate Risk Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma In Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy Era NCT02633202 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• The Role of Induction Chemotherapy for High-risk Locally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in the Era of IMRT NCT01797900 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.