A Double-blind Study to Investigate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of BAY 1142524 in Patients After Acute Myocardial Infarction With Left-ventricular Dysfunction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeborandomizationpainmassto assess
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsmmefficacyblood pressureinhibitor
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 714 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Single-blind Pilot Study to Investigate Safety and Tolerability of the Chymase Inhibitor BAY1142524 in Clinically Stable Patients With Left-ventricular Dysfunction NCT02452515 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of CDR132L in Patients With Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction After Myocardial Infarction NCT05350969 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study to Gather Information About the Proper Dosing and Safety of the Oral FXIa Inhibitor BAY 2433334 in Patients Following an Acute Heart Attack NCT04304534 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Firibastat or Ramipril After Acute Myocardial Infarction for Prevention of Left Ventricular Dysfunction NCT03715998 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• STem cElls Mobilization in Acute Myocardial Infarction Outcome Trial NCT01969890 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.