Safety and Effectiveness of BM-MSC vs AT-MSC in the Treatment of SCI Patients.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellscellstemtransplantationinjury
  Phrases that lowered it: safetycomparerespiratoryvehiclediseases
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of Spinal Cord Injuries With (AutoBM-MSCs)vs (WJ-MSCs). NCT04288934 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cells Transplantation for Spinal Cord Injury- A Phase I Clinical Study NCT02482194 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Administration of Expanded Autologous Adult Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Cells in Established Chronic Spinal Cord Injuries NCT02570932 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Chronic Spinal Cord Injury NCT01676441 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Treatment of Sequelae Caused by Severe Brain Injury With Autologous Adipose-derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells NCT01649700 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.