Oral Navelbine and Cisplatin Followed by Metronomic Oral Navelbine in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancersmall cellcell lungnon smallstage
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetythe efficacyevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Metronomic Vinorelbine and Bevacizumab in Patients With Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00755170 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Maintenance Low Dose Oral Navelbine In Patients With Non Small Cell Lung Cancer - MA.NI.LA Trial NCT02176369 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Study of Combination of Metronomic Oral Vinorelbine and Sorafenib in Patients With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00870532 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Study of Vinorelbine and Cisplatin as Induction Therapy With Radiotherapy in Patients With Unresectable NSCLC NCT02709720 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Study of Oral Vinorelbine and Erlotinib in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00702182 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.