OTX-15-002: A Phase 3 Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of OTX-DP for the Treatment of Chronic Allergic Conjunctivitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diabeticoculartreatmentactiveskin
  Phrases that lowered it: allergenand safetyefficacy andevaluate theallergic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• OTX-14-007: A Phase 3 Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of OTX-DP for the Treatment of Chronic Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT02445326 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• OTX-14-001: A Phase 2 Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of OTX-DP for the Treatment of Chronic Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT02062905 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of OTX-DP for the Treatment of Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT04050865 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study of ADX-102 in Subjects With Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT03012165 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Safety and Efficacy of Ketotifen 4.0% Patch as Compared to Placebo Patch, Olopatadine 0.2% Ophthalmic Solution, and Artificial Tears in the Conjunctival Allergen Challenge (CAC) Model of Acute Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT00836485 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.