Phase Ib/II Trial of Interleukin-2 and PD-1 Checkpoint Inhibitor, Nivolumab In Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Cell Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcancerpriormetastaticsubject
  Phrases that lowered it: renalarthritisrheumatoidcorticosteroidsfunction
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 31.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 35.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8456 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• High Dose IL-2 in Combination With Anti-PD-1 NCT03991130 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• High Dose IL-2 and Stereotactic Ablative Body Radiation Therapy for Metastatic Renal Cancer NCT01896271 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Interleukin-2 and Pembrolizumab for Metastatic Kidney Cancer NCT02964078 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Study in Which Therapy is Either Switched to Nivolumab After 3 Months of Treatment or Therapy is Continued With a Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) and Disease Control NCT02959554 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Recombinant Interleukin-15 in Combination With Checkpoint Inhibitors Nivolumab and Ipilimumab in People With Refractory Cancers NCT03388632 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.