Evaluation of Major Cardiovascular Events in Participants With, or at High Risk for, Cardiovascular Disease Who Are Statin Intolerant Treated With Bempedoic Acid (ETC-1002) or Placebo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboscreeningto determinecoronaryhistory of
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantpatientstherapymg
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Bempedoic Acid (ETC-1002) in Patients With Hyperlipidemia and Statin Intolerant NCT02988115 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Long-Term Efficacy of Bempedoic Acid (ETC-1002) in Patients With Hyperlipidemia at High Cardiovascular Risk NCT02991118 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Long-Term Safety and Tolerability of ETC-1002 in High-Risk Patients With Hyperlipidemia and High CV Risk (CLEAR Harmony) NCT02666664 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Assessment of the Long-Term Safety and Efficacy of Bempedoic Acid (CLEAR Harmony OLE) NCT03067441 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Bempedoic Acid (ETC-1002) as Add-on to Ezetimibe Therapy in Patients With Elevated LDL-C (CLEAR Tranquility) NCT03001076 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.