Evaluation of Single Ascending Doses of Subcutaneous Exendin 9-39 in Patients With Post-Bariatric Hypoglycemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: postascendingsurgeryglucosepatients
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andmgsinglepharmacokineticsubjects
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Subcutaneous Exendin (9-39) in Patients With Post Bariatric Hypoglycemia NCT02771574 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Exendin 9-39 in Patients With Postbariatric Hypoglycemia NCT03373435 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Evaluating Exenatide for the Treatment of Postprandial Hyperinsulinemic Hypoglycemia NCT02685852 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Role of GLP-1 in Hyperinsulinemic Hypoglycemia Post-bariatric Surgery NCT02550145 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Mizagliflozin on Postprandial Glucose and Insulin in Post-Bariatric Hypoglycemia Subjects NCT05541939 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.