Treatment of Adenoviral Conjunctivitis With SHP640 Compared to Povidone-iodine (PVP-I) and Placebo
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-05-13, after 2017-03-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: nonocularactivediseaseeye
Phrases that lowered it: visitdayperiodproductsequal to -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 225 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 24 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment of Adenoviral Conjunctivitis With SHP640 Compared to Placebo NCT02998554 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
- Treatment of Bacterial Conjunctivitis With SHP640 Compared to PVP-Iodine and Placebo NCT03004924 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of IVIEW-1201 in Acute Viral Conjunctivitis NCT03749317 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Effectiveness of ST266 Ophthalmic Drops Compared to Placebo to Treat Allergic Conjunctivitis NCT02978183 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of GRF312 5% in Participants With Dry Eye Disease (DED). NCT07264517 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.