Eltrombopag Combined With Cyclosporine as First Line Therapy in Patients With Severe Acquired Aplastic Anemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bonemarrowulntherapyline
  Phrases that lowered it: malefemaleand safetysinglescreening
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 180 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 998 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9294 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Dose-escalation Study Characterizing the PK of Eltrombopag in Pediatric Patients With Previously Untreated or Relapsed Severe Aplastic Anemia or Recurrent Aplastic Anemia NCT03025698 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Eltrombopag + CSA in Patients With Moderate Aplastic Anemia (EMAA) NCT02773225 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Eltrombopag In Patients With Severe and Very Severe Aplastic Anemia NCT01703169 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Eltrombopag in Japanese Subjects With Refractory, Moderate or More Severe Aplastic Anemia NCT02148133 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Extended Dosing With Eltrombopag for Severe Aplastic Anemia NCT01891994 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.