A Prospective Study of B244 Delivered as a Topical Spray to Determine Safety and Efficacy in Subjects With Elevated Blood Pressure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: failureheartiistageiv
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalefficacyvehicleevaluatesubjects
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• TC-5214 as Augmentation Therapy in Patients With Refractory Hypertension NCT00899977 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety in Participants With Uncontrolled Hypertension on Two or More Medications Including Participants With Resistant Hypertension NCT07790120 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• The Effects of Antihypertensive Agents on Central Blood Pressure in Healthy Participants and Participants With Hypertension (MK-0000-166) (COMPLETED) NCT01130168 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Irbesartan and Amlodipine Combination in Controlling Blood Pressure NCT00950066 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of SPH3127 on Treating Mild-moderate Essential Hypertension Patients NCT03756103 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.