BI 655066 (Risankizumab) Compared to Placebo in Japanese Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: phase iichronicpatientdiagnosisactive
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisplaquemoderatearthritisand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 92 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 71 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• BI 655066 (Risankizumab) Compared to Placebo and Active Comparator (Ustekinumab) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT02684370 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing the Safety and Efficacy of Risankizumab to Methotrexate in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT03219437 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Risankizumab Using a New Formulation in Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT03875482 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate IBI112 in the Treatment of Psoriasis With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT05645627 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• BI 655066 / ABBV-066 (Risankizumab) in Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis With Randomized Withdrawal and Re-treatment NCT02672852 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.