A Comparison of PF708 and Forteo in Osteoporosis Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-05-31, after 2016-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: of screeningtime ofthe timehistory ofdisease
Phrases that lowered it: patients withmultiplein patientsonce dailyvalue -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 37.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 87762 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 30 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 87762 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2416 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 37.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- teriparatide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Comparison Study of PF708 and Forteo in Healthy Subjects NCT02656810 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- A Study for the Transdermal Application of Teriparatide NCT01011556 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Denosumab, Teriparatide or Both for the Treatment of Postmenopausal Osteoporosis NCT00926380 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- An Open-label Study to Evaluate the Effect of Treatment With Romosozumab or Teriparatide in Postmenopausal Women NCT01796301 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Comparison of Efficacy, Pharmacodynamics, Safety, and Immunogenicity Between Bmab 1000 and Prolia® in Postmenopausal Women With Osteoporosis NCT05345691 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.