To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of 1146A Nasal Spray in Adult Participants With Symptoms of Common Cold

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationdefineddiagnosispast monthssymptoms
  Phrases that lowered it: nasalrhinitisasthmapainparticipant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 2328 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 220 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Local Nasal Tolerability and Safety Study of 1146A in Healthy Adult Participants NCT02832362 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study In Adults And Adolescents With Irritant (Non-Allergic) Rhinitis NCT00730756 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Comparison of Mometasone Nasal Spray, Nasonex Nasal Spray, Nasonex Nasal Spray Suspension, & Placebo for Treatment of Seasonal Allergies for Safety, Efficacy, & Superiority in 1520 Male & Female Volunteers NCT02109185 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-Controlled, Efficacy Study of a New Formulation of Phenylephrine HCL in the Common Cold NCT03339726 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
• Study To Evaluate Patient Preference, Satisfaction And Efficacy Of a Nasal Aerosol Versus an Aqueous Nasal Spray NCT01401465 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.