PHASE III RANDOMISED TRIAL to EVALUATE FOLFOX with or WITHOUT DOCETAXEL (TFOX) AS 1st LINE CHEMOTHERAPY for LOCALLY ADVANCED or METASTATIC OESOPHAGO-GASTRIC CARCINOMA
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-02-27, after 2016-12-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerher2metastaticchemotherapydisease
Phrases that lowered it: gastricefficacy andaccordingphase iiitrial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 17 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 57891 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9817 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- docetaxel, leucovorin, oxaliplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Prospective Study With FLOT in Patients With Locally Advanced, Limited Metastatic or Extensive Metastatic Adenocarcinoma of the Stomach or Esophagogastric Junction NCT00849615 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- NESC: Neoadjuvant Treatment of Gastric Adenocarcinoma NCT01565109 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Docetaxel + Oxaliplatin + S-1 in Potentially Operable Gastric or Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma NCT00816543 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Pilot Study of Perioperative Docetaxel, Oxaliplatin, and 5-Fluorouracil (FLOT) in Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma NCT01932580 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Taxotere New Indication - Gastric Cancer Treatment Registration Trial NCT00811447 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.