Low Dose Naltrexone for Chronic Pain From Arthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (35 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-12-31, after 2018-05-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painpatientchronicbreastto determine
Phrases that lowered it: arthritismultipleosteoarthritisscreeningjoint -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 33.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 394 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 394 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 148 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9842 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1338 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 33.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- naltrexone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Low-Dose Naltrexone and Acetaminophen Combination in the Treatment of Chronic Low Back Pain (ANODYNE-4) NCT03201393 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Study of PIPE-791 for Subjects With Chronic Osteoarthritis Pain or Chronic Low Back Pain NCT06810245 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Dose-Response Characterization of VER-01 in the Treatment of Patients With Chronic Non-specific Low Back Pain NCT06475001 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Maximizing Analgesia to Reduce Pain in Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03098563 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- A Confirmatory Study of Fentanyl in Participants With Osteoarthritis or Low Back Pain NCT01008618 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.