Study to Separately Evaluate the Activity of Talacotuzumab (JNJ-56022473) or Daratumumab in Transfusion-Dependent Participants With Low or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) Who Are Relapsed or Refractory to Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agent (ESA) Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mdscellmarrowchemotherapymyelodysplastic
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theparticipantsthe efficacyto evaluate20
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 122 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 266 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Darbepoetin Alfa MDS Companion Protocol NCT02175277 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib Study of Select Drug Combinations in Patients With Lower Risk MDS NCT04810611 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Lenalidomide in Subject With Low and Intermediate-1 Risk MDS and Without Chromosome 5 Abnormality. NCT01718379 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Study of Lenalidomide Versus Placebo in Subjects With Transfusion Dependent Anemia in Lower Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Without Del 5q NCT01029262 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Siltuximab Plus Best Supportive Care to Placebo Plus Best Supportive Care in Anemic Patients With International Prognostic Scoring System Low- or Intermediate-1-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT01513317 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.