Oral Nitrite in Patients With Pulmonary Hypertension and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dementiastageto determineheart failureenrollment
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningresponsesmoker18subject
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 77 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 482 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Inhaled Sodium Nitrite on Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT02262078 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Acute Effects of Inorganic Nitrite on Cardiovascular Hemodynamics in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT01932606 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Hemodynamic Evaluation of Levosimendan in Patients With PH-HFpEF NCT03541603 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Inorganic Nitrite to Amplify the Benefits and Tolerability of Exercise Training in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) (INABLE-Training) NCT02713126 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• A Study of Oral Nitrate in Adults With Pulmonary Hypertension With Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT02980068 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.