A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Two Different Dose Regimens of Risankizumab Administered Subcutaneously in Japanese Subjects With Generalized Pustular Psoriasis or Erythrodermic Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: time ofsubjects withthe timediagnosistherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisjapaneseareaefficacydiseases
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 79 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Subcutaneous Risankizumab Injection to Assess Change in Palmoplantar Pustulosis Area and Severity Index [PPPASI] in Adult Japanese Participants With Palmoplantar Pustulosis NCT04451720 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Risankizumab Using a New Formulation in Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT03875482 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Study of Subcutaneous (Injected Under the Skin) Risankizumab to Assess Change in Disease Symptoms in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis With Palmoplantar Involvement NCT04713592 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Secukinumab in Japanese Subjects With Generalized Pustular Psoriasis (GPP) NCT01952015 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing the Safety and Efficacy of Risankizumab to Methotrexate in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT03219437 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.