Baricitinib in Relapsing Giant Cell Arteritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-04-12, after 2017-03-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellulnpatientheartrecurrent
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinationmaleparticipantssinglevaccine -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 83.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, neurology, immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- baricitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Baricitinib in Sjogren's Syndrome NCT05016297 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Baricitinib (LY3009104) in the Treatment of Cutaneous Lichen Planus NCT05188521 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Tolerability of Intravenous Secukinumab in Patients With GCA or PMR NCT06130540 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- GOLimumab and Methotrexate Versus Methotrexate in Very Early PsA NCT04108468 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Abatacept for the Treatment of Relapsing, Non-Severe, Granulomatosis With Polyangiitis (Wegener's) NCT02108860 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.